Thursday, November 8, 2007

Solar calculations - part 2

OK, I did a bit more research into the cost of solar power by looking into the Victorville, CA Solar Power station. The plant plans to build 20,000 Stirling generators, producing 25 kW each. The cost at such production levels is estimated to be $50-80,000 per generator, which is a cost per watt between $2 and $3.20, a bit lower than the Nevada One figures I mentioned in my post below.

So this stuff is realistic.

What's even more interesting is that the plant will earn back its cost in 15 years by selling power at ~7 cents/kWh, and after that it's going to "mint money," as this Business Week article puts it.

So this stuff is profitable. My question is, what's the holdup?

1 comment:

Jason Roberts said...

Very interesting, but I have a few questions. Let's say I wanted to build or invest in a solar power station based on Stirling generators.

1. You say that the cost per watt is between $2 and $3.20 based on the cost of the generators, and you say that this is realistic, but what is the current cost per watt for conventional power plants?

2. How much would it cost to maintain a Stirling Generator? Would it just be a matter of keeping the mirrors clean and replacing a broken one every once in a while, or are the optics and electronics sufficiently complex and delicate, and therefore expensive to maintain?

3. How much land does a Stirling Generator require? If the best place to put these generators is out in the desert where land is cheap and available, then how much would that land cost, or is that figured into the cost of the generators - $50K - $80K?

4. Does the efficiency of the generators remain constant or do they degrade measurably over time? Or more generally, what's the life expectancy of an individual generator? If the initial investment in the plant is recouped at current energy rates, then for how many years will the plant be able to 'print money'?

5. If the cost of energy were to rise with the inevitable global depletion of oil, coal and natural gas, then wouldn't a solar power station become significantly more profitable over time? It would be interesting to see some projections based on rising energy costs.

Basically, if I were an entrepreneur considering the idea of building such a solar power station, then how much money might it require to get something like this up and running (if even at a smaller scale), and then what would be the expected return on that investment?