Friday, November 2, 2007

Peak Oil - the Energy Crunch Opportunity

Peak oil is here. I don't want it to be here. You don't want it to be here. But as someone once said (I think it was Jack Welch, although he surely can't have been the first), "deal with the world as it is, not as you want it to be."

Oil production is declining according to a report from the Energy Watch Group in Germany. The world currently produces 83 M barrels/day, or 30.3 billion/year. At current oil prices of ~$93/barrel, that means $2.8 trillion spent on oil this year worldwide.

As that report predicts, global oil output is going to drop by 25 million barrels/day by 2020 to a predicted output of 58 million barrels/day. That equates to almost a trillion dollars of value PER YEAR that will need to be replaced, and that's not even taking into account the projected increase in the world's energy demand over the same period. That amount will rise to a trillion and a half dollars per year by 2030.

Where will that energy come from? Oil shale, oil sands, or natural gas? Biofuels, solar, wind, or geothermal? The answer is yes. It will have to be a combination of a lot of different answers, since no single answer seems complete.

A trillion and a half per year. Seems like a fairly large market. Clever entrepreneurs wanted.

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